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U.S. authorities have started active preparations in response to the rising threat of an outbreak of African swine fever, the deadly disease that has decimated the Chinese pig population and is spreading across Asia.

The Agriculture Department’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service led several functional exercises and drills late last month, working off a scenario of an outbreak of the virus in Mississippi that traveled across state lines before it was discovered. Fourteen states participated in the drill.

“We got everyone involved in terms of state troopers, diagnostic labs, private veterinarians and state officials, trying to figure out where the virus was,” said Dave Pyburn, the senior vice president of science and technology for the National Pork Board. “As far as controlling it here, the closer we can get to that index case [the first identified case in an outbreak], the better we can control it.”

Experts say the most likely vector for the disease arriving in North America is tainted animal feed.

According to the World Organization of Animal Health, the disease has spread to more than 50 countries. As many as half of China’s pigs, an estimated 300 million, have died of the virus or been exterminated since the disease took hold 13 months ago. In the past months it has advanced to Vietnam, Laos and South Korea. At the beginning of September, the Philippines confirmed African swine fever in at least seven villages near Manila, requiring 7,000 pigs to be euthanized. And at the end of September, East Timor reported more than 100 outbreaks to the World Organization for Animal Health.

With these developments, the American pork industry has begun mobilizing. Experts say the risk of a domestic outbreak of African swine fever is increasing.

“It’s a higher probability, that’s for sure,” Pyburn said. “ What are the odds? I don’t have a precise number I can give. But take a look at what this virus is doing around the globe today. And then look at the way goods and people travel. This would have a devastating effect on our industry. It’s the nastiest disease we have on the planet.”

A domestic outbreak could have consequences well beyond the pork industry (which Pyburn said could run into billions of dollars). Widespread loss of pigs could devastate the corn and soy industries, which are primary feed sources, and industries such as beef could be affected by a loss in consumer confidence.

Infected pigs go off their feed, Pyburn said. They don’t want to move and spike a high fever. By Day 5 there is a hemorrhagic disease in the pigs, bleeding throughout the body and in the organs. By the end of the second week, 85 to 95 percent of the pigs die. There is no vaccine or treatment. The virus can live for weeks on infected slaughtered meat or cold cuts, on tainted feed, and on animal feed additives.

While causing high mortality in domesticated and wild pigs, the disease does not infect humans. The only member of the Asfarviridae family, the virus needs to get inside of cells to replicate. According to Pyburn, it requires receptors on host cells and pigs are the only ones with the proper receptors.

But because there is no vaccine or cure, preventing an outbreak is of paramount importance.

There is insufficient American organic soy, so hog farmers wishing to feed their animals organic soy often import it from China. And there are feed ingredients — B vitamins and trace minerals — that are manufactured only in China. The virus can survive for up to a month on these products, so they must be quarantined and heated to kill the virus.

“If it was me, I would ban the importation of soy products from African-swine-fever-infected states,” said Scott Dee, director of research for Pipestone Veterinary Services, who has been studying viral movement in animal feed under a Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research grant. Canada requires a permit for soy products and has a 30-day quarantine period. Dee said a lot of U.S. companies are adopting a similar approach.

But this isn’t the only risk for an outbreak. Dee said the virus could also be carried by human travelers via the illegal smuggling of meat or other infected food. In many parts of the world, wet markets spread the virus, the kinds of markets where live animals might be at one end of the street, with butchered products for sale at the other. And the practice of feeding pigs “swill” or leftover people food introduces opportunities for tainted meat to be fed to live animals.

The USDA has outlawed raw swill, as a way of preventing an outbreak of African swine fever, requiring that swill be boiled for 30 minutes and cooled before being fed to pigs, said Timothy Kurt, the scientific program director for Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research.

But it is difficult for the government to monitor compliance, and because these practices are time-consuming and expensive, experts say some operators could take shortcuts
 

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In today's world - the one our kids and grandkids will live in... there's just no thing, no matter how far away... that can't come to our shores, and will likely be in place long enough for a good start - before we ever know it's here...

Not scare tactics - just plain reality... We all have to do whatever we can to make sure that local, state and federal types are on the ball since that's our only protection... My hat's off to all the researchers and health officials who deal with the nightmare possibilities every day. Remember in some epidemics it's the health care workers (doctors, nurses, orderlies) that are the first casualties.... Old mother nature can be a mean old lady at times - and in human history there have been times when the human population got seriously reduced by one bug or other. You can bet it will occur again at some point. At least we have the resources to catch it and have a chance of knocking it down before we go down a bad road.

And if we protect our shores properly (here's where outfits like customs actually earn their money..) we'll have a better chance than most of handling whatever comes.
Things across the world can and do have an effect here. Some years back southeast Asia and China had a terrible outbreak of SARS and various bird flu outbreaks as well. Although they killed all of the infected birds (and are still doing that whenever an outbreak occurs) it's still a problem if I remember correctly... How did it effect me personally? I was a commercial fly tyer for many years (still tie a lot of flies - but only for my anglers use on charters...) and guess where 99% of the strung neck hackles and strung saddle hackles come from? Right where the chickens had to be destroyed.... So for a few years my sources were really struggling to come up with the goods.... Not exactly life threatening -but a consideration for anyone in the feather importing business (no wonder synthetic materials have become more popular...).
 

· Rex Kwan Do Dojo
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The sky is falling. Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Monkey Pox, Ebola, Mad Cow Disease, Anthrax, Global Warming, Global Cooling, it’s all BS to distract us from what’s going on and been going on right under our noses.
Do you know why PMS, is called PMS?

Because Mad Cow Disease was already taken.
 

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The global economy has shown its weaknesses in many ways and this is just one. The fact that we have to import feed from China is an abomination!! America has stopped making vital medicines, supplements and chemicals because they are cheaper to buy from China and India. I for one see this as a weakness, we are now dependent on third world countries for basic needs.
 

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The global economy has shown its weaknesses in many ways and this is just one. The fact that we have to import feed from China is an abomination!! America has stopped making vital medicines, supplements and chemicals because they are cheaper to buy from China and India. I for one see this as a weakness, we are now dependent on third world countries for basic needs.
I agree. Studies say that something like 50% of all food is wasted in the United States. Solve that problem and the need to import goes away. Of course, if we used 50% less food, that would be bad for the farmers.
 
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· Brandon, FL
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So the “experts” say the most likely vector is tainted animal feeds... WTH, we grow corn and soy here and ship it over seas then buy it right back? I know, I know... but DAMN! Somebody build a damn grain mill on our soil again please!
The cost of permits will take 30 years to recover.

The employees benefits will add a bunch of money to final cost.

Still cheaper to grow the stuff, ship to china, have them process it and ship it back.

Something is wrong with that picture but it is the window of reality.
 

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The cost of permits will take 30 years to recover.

The employees benefits will add a bunch of money to final cost.

Still cheaper to grow the stuff, ship to china, have them process it and ship it back.

Something is wrong with that picture but it is the window of reality.
Rather than enrich Socialist Nationalist China; realignment of supply chains to include countries south of us seems sensible and might bear fruit in the long run... What is clear is China is not liberalizing economically and won't because the 90% Hunnan state is focused on regaining their lost celestial empire, being the preeminent global power and getting revenge against the perceived instigators of the opium wars. Whats bad in the now is they are imposing their authoritarian Values onto the west and some of the profit driven short time preference west is not being reticent in their rather apparent approval if not outright acceptance of these values. Nike, the NBA, Hollywood etc are symptomatic of this trend. IP theft, a massive military build up... lots to ponder in regard to China.

Some say China ran out of appropriate feed for their livestock due to the trade war, plausible.

What seems apparent is most of Clown World seems to be either re-polarizing or realigning - should get interesting.
Long Live BBQ.
 

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The driving force behind stuff going offshore was our own government as Congress added taxes and regs bit by bit over many years - then had the audacity to call it progress... while we quietly went into decline and industry after industry moved offshore.

The main driver of our economic recovery these past three years has been the removal of regs and rules that hinder or prevent business from getting on with stuff ... This, of course, will never be admitted by those that hate the guy responsible...

I’ve actually had a boost to my small charter business now that ordinary folks are in a bit better financial shape these past three years as well but you’re not likely to see the “other side” ever admit it.
 
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So how strong do I need to make the fencing for that pen?
If there is a sow in heat within sniffing distance of his nose, there ain’t a pen built that’ll hold him! Now for his offspring and as long as they meet the freezer by 8months a feedlot panel and t post pen will work fine. If done right, you can buy 3 additional panels and a few more posts and rotate the pen around like a chicken tractor keeping them on fresh ground.
 
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