Stock Market

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by LowHydrogen, Feb 14, 2018 at 11:47 AM.

What is your current gut feeling?

  1. Buying opportunity.

    8 vote(s)
    50.0%
  2. Hold for now

    6 vote(s)
    37.5%
  3. Sell

    2 vote(s)
    12.5%
  1. LowHydrogen

    LowHydrogen Fly-By-Night

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    Despite our proclivity for turning anything into a political meltdown, we have a TON of collective wisdom on this site.
    I don't plan on retiring or needing money from investments anytime in the near future, so I very rarely change my investment approach, and when I do it's rarely drastic. So far my approach has been to maximize investments/returns in tax protected accounts (Roth 401k, and 2 Roth IRAs) early each year, before putting anything in a regular brokerage account. I do plan to eventually/slowly migrate a % out of equities as I get closer to retirement.

    What do you guys think of the run up over that last couple years, and recent mild correction and increase in volatility?

    Interested in hearing about people's different approaches, ideas, strategies, theories, thoughts, and tips in general.

    I understand taxes and govt. directly effect this subject, but let's try and keep responses financial/factual in nature and keep politics & emotion to a minimum.
     
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  2. Fishshoot

    Fishshoot Active Member

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    Buy and Hold. IRAs are great for dividend stocks IMO because you don't have to pay capital gains on those dividends! there are some great rates 1.5% available on savings accounts now and I keep some money in there in case something I am watching drops or I see some other buying opportunity.
     
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  3. J-Dad

    J-Dad Well-Known Member

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    Sounds to me like you're doing all the right things - though I'd suggest putting at least some of your money in a tax-deferred 401-K. Then tune out the noise, and re-balance your stock to bond mix when you get more than 5% out of whack to the asset allocation you've decided is appropriate.
     
  4. LowHydrogen

    LowHydrogen Fly-By-Night

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    Currently holding a few dividend payers in addition to some mutual funds. Have any that I should look into? Currently I am using my dividends to grow some positions and further diversify, also have a couple on a DRIP. KMI, ENB, T, ADM, VZ, WMT, CMI, MMM
     
  5. LowHydrogen

    LowHydrogen Fly-By-Night

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    I have the option to split my 401k however I want in each category (Roth vs Traditional), other than the tax break on the front, are their other advantages? What kind of a percentage would you consider?
     
  6. Flatsaholic

    Flatsaholic Well-Known Member

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    I have taken interest in inverse ETFs. In the past two days I have increased my account over 10%. Last week I sold 3 stocks that gained more then 20%. ETFs can be a risk if you do not do the proper research.
     
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  7. LowHydrogen

    LowHydrogen Fly-By-Night

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    Are these plays you are holding days/weeks/months trading on dips and peaks? Or is there a long term strategy?

    Edit: to add I have only owned one ETF and that's VOO, I've been pretty happy with it.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2018 at 3:58 PM
  8. topnative2

    topnative2 Well-Known Member

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    https://www.firecalc.com/
    http://www.morningstar.com/
    https://finviz.com/



    Low cost/fee index funds.
    Max out all "tax free/deferred" accounts before buying annuities. Term life insurance.

    Stay away from insurance company salesmen selling investment products.

    Diversify Diversify Diversify and do not try to be a hero.

    The average smo should not pick stocks except w/ "play money" ie.... what u can afford to loose w/o sucking wind.

    Active investors rarely beat the indexes.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2018 at 4:30 PM
  9. Flatsaholic

    Flatsaholic Well-Known Member

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    These are swing trades. It can vary from days to weeks. I do not hold them.
     
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  10. topnative2

    topnative2 Well-Known Member

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    If it is to good to be true or u do not understand it, stay away from it.Make sure u do the math and remember nothing is free.
    And, absolutely stay away from front load and back load funds.
    Morningstar has a great book .
    Morningstar Guide to Mutual Funds: Five-Star Strategies for Success
     
  11. LowHydrogen

    LowHydrogen Fly-By-Night

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    Since I moved them from the bank a few years back I have used the etrade screener along with Morningstar ratings to pick funds in the IRAs, it has worked well so far. 401k is in a Vanguard fund (unfortunately I can't buy the same low fee Admiral share flavor through Etrade).
     
  12. Whiskey Angler

    Whiskey Angler I Love microskiff.com!

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    Agreed. Most of my post tax (liquid investments) go into my Vanguard total domestic index fund and total world stock fund (I think I'm currently balanced at 70% domestic and 30% world).

    I always keep some cash to the side for technology stock picking. I've had some success buying the dips on individual lithium producer stocks.

    Caterpillar has been a steady growers the last few years as well.

    I do 10% into my 401k, and rebalance its distribution about twice a year.
     
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  13. Whiskey Angler

    Whiskey Angler I Love microskiff.com!

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    Oh...and instead of blowing money in Vegas I'm holding some litecoin ....what a thrill.
     
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  14. topnative2

    topnative2 Well-Known Member

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  15. sjrobin

    sjrobin I Love microskiff.com!

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    A lot depends on your retirement or work reduction timeline. I was fortunate to have the benefit of company sponsored seminars and networking with fellow employees and employees already in retirement. Some retirement financial outcomes were not so good, but most less aggressive approaches were ok. To get to where I am now I bought and held one energy stock for over thirty years. No diversification. When I left the company, I rolled it all to Vanguard (best management and lowest fees) and diversified 70/30 equities/bonds. Within that split 25% international equities and bonds. Re-balance when the split deviates more than __ %. Keep some cash for buying and selling short if you like. My goal is to delay ss to age 70 and spend most of the savings by age 80. The best advice on investing comes from Jack Bogle and Warren Buffet. Both very disciplined investors. Pick five of the best hedge fund managers and average the ten year returns minus fees. Buy and hold the S&P 500 for ten years. The S&P will beat the best managers over the same time period. Or roll the dice and pick your hedge fund or favorite manager.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018 at 1:09 AM
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  16. CurtisWright

    CurtisWright Light, Strong, Cheap. Pick Two.

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    All about your time horizon. I max out 401K, HSA, and a Roth IRA, before putting anything in a brokerage account. All my stuff is in index funds between Fidelity and Vanguard.
    My investment strategy is a little unique. I'm 32 and on track to retire by 40. (More like work when I want to by 40)
    No help from the parents, other than genetics and 18 years of freeroom and board. I am not married, no kids, and pretty much live on lentils and rice. Undergraduate in engineering from local public college and make an average engineering salary.

    I have index fund buckets for each 5 years of retirement. The earliest bucket (2025-2030) is about 40% bonds and 60% stocks. All the way up to my 2060+ bucket which is 100% stocks, and lots of international holdings.

    When there is a pull back in the market, I will re-allocate from my low risk short term buckets to high long term buckets to try to get more return on the way back up. Its a low risk way to play the market, but the returns are also lower than if you are good at picking individual stocks.

    Side note: I did take $20K to try and pick stocks the last few years. My ROR was -7%. The market was ~+40%. So yea, Its all index funds for me from now on!

    Recessions / big pullbacks are usually the result of systemic fraud or really high commodity prices. I do not plan to ever take all of my money out of the market. However, If we start seeing headlines like "20% default rate on student loans", "really really big important corporation cooks books to boost stock price", "Oil is headed to $150/bbl", or "entire US is experiencing extreme drought/water shortage" then I will start moving money to conservative index funds.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018 at 11:36 AM
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  17. CurtisWright

    CurtisWright Light, Strong, Cheap. Pick Two.

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    It depends on how you want to retire. If you plan on living simple, drawing less per year out of savings than you are making now, traditional is best because you pay taxes in a lower bracket.
    (This category is the "live in the house I already own, drive my same truck, and wear out my local fishing hole in my homebuilt skiff"

    If you plan on continuously increasing your standard of living through retirement then its best to do Roth, and pay the taxes now at lower rates than you would in retirement.
    (This category is "Buy a retirement home on Miami Beach, Upgrade to an Infiniti Q80, Get a new Chittum, and take monthly guided trips to Belize for bonefish.)
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2018 at 8:43 AM
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  18. J-Dad

    J-Dad Well-Known Member

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    There's not an absolute advantage to either one - you're either paying the taxes up front or when you withdraw. You can't accurately predict future tax rates, but as CurtisWright notes, if you're likely to live a simple lifestyle in retirement you might be in a lower bracket as you make withdrawals for income, which favors the traditional; more extravagant withdrawals and you're bracket might be higher, which would favor the Roth. (2018 will be my first full year of retirement, and I'll be in a lower bracket - which would have happened even under the old rates.) But if you're not close to retirement age even lifestyle circumstances are hard to predict. So contributing to both is another means of diversification. As far as a percent of each, maybe contribute the max in payroll deductions to the traditional (since you've already have a Roth balance), then add any extra (bonuses, tax returns, inheritance, etc.) to the Roth.
     
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  19. topnative2

    topnative2 Well-Known Member

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    On SS, take it early...basic math.....takes about 17yrs(i think/remember) to make up the difference u loose taking it early...and that is w/o counting the COLA "increases"

    I would hate to die leaving anymore money to the government.
     
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