[Indoman]

While I know no one has a crystal ball, I’m curious to hear what the local chatter is with red tide expectations / forecast for the upcoming summer. I have about 30 days to decide if we commit to our usual summer plans and fish the Boca Grande area, or do we make plans to fish the Keys this summer and see if conditions improve in SW FL.

I’ve been watching the local fishing reports and it seems right now guys are catchin’ and the FWC site shows no current red tide issues, but I also know water temps are cool and the releases from Lake O are probably pretty low right now.

I’m ok with the fishing being slow, we managed to find fish in last years crappy conditions, I just don’t want to drag the family into the stank that was last summer. Nasty smell, coughing, dead shiot everywhere, water clarity issues etc.

Early thoughts on the upcoming summer season?

We head down the first week of July.

Thx

 

[Smackdaddy53]

Has the population of Florida dropped by a few million? If the answer is no...

 

[Indoman]

Hmm. I was figuring a dry season would lessen the likelihood of it being as bad by way of lower discharge from the lake. I also understand the population piece. Just curious if there has been any new developments I’m not aware of.

Hoping for the best but expecting the worst, I guess.

 

[Capnredfish]

Hmm. I was figuring a dry season would lessen the likelihood of it being as bad by way of lower discharge from the lake. I also understand the population piece. Just curious if there has been any new developments I’m not aware of.

Hoping for the best but expecting the worst, I guess.

Decades to solve the issues. There sure are developments you aren’t aware of. New construction continues in Florida. That brings up another topic. Will head over to off topic.

 

[secretsquirrelflyfishing]

Red tide has been going on for many years and generally after a really bad outbreak we are red tide free for a while or at least minimum amount of it will be around. Red tide is a very patchy thing and just because one area has red tide does not mean that a few miles away it would not be good fishing.

 

[Boatbrains]

Red tide has been going on for many years and generally after a really bad outbreak we are red tide free for a while or at least minimum amount of it will be around. Red tide is a very patchy thing and just because one area has red tide does not mean that a few miles away it would not be good fishing.

This!!! I’d be more concerned with the blue green algae, at least that is something that can be “fixed” by humans since we caused it! Red tide ain’t goin anywhere no matter the money and man power that gets thrown at it. We need to stop trying to stop mothernature and embrace it! Fix the water flow problem down there and maybe the red tide out breaks won’t be as broad/severe, but we’ll always have red tide.

 

[Backcountry 16]

Does Herpes go away? It's the Herpes of water so I would head to the keys. Plus it's too hot in the summer down here for fishing.

 

[Indoman]

No, Herpes won’t go away...but I have a friend who says they make a great medicine to hide it.

 

[krash]

We never expect it, it just happens usually starts out miles offshore in the Gulf then washes/blown inshore and makes its way Southward... it's not a result of Lake 'O discharges that causes the Blue-Green algae. Last year, or 2, the perfect storm happened, bad year of Red Tide that got mixed with the larger than normal Lake 'O discharges at just the wrong time.

I've lived here for-ever and for-ever we have had Red-Tides, usually only on the West Cost and not usually as bad as the last year, although I can remember some years worse than others, just like hurricanes... never really affected my decision to vacation somewhere between Sanibel and Sarasota.

 

[Viking1]

We all wish we had that crystal ball! Each year I fish SW FL and the Keys and love both. Last year was tough in SW FL and I had 3 trips there during the red tide outbreak. Like you said it is no fun taking a family through red tide funck. If it was me I would take the family to the keys for a change of pace and wait SW FL out a year. What I would do is take the family out fishing early morning, late afternoon and early evening. Night fishing in the keys is a neat experience. During the middle of the day during the July heat do other activities like swimming in the pool, snorkeling, visiting Dolphin Research Center, biking around Key West, visiting Robbie's or my favorite a great lunch like at Lazy Days restaurant in Islamorada. Hope you and your family have a great trip wherever you end up.

 

[crboggs]

Red tide is naturally occurring and has been happening for as long as people have been recording history here in FL. We can do very little to prevent it completely. They're still trying to determine if there is anything we can do to mitigate or minimize it...

The blue/green algae blooms are a different animal. Hopefully with some new leadership in the state, we'll see steps towards curbing the underlying factors there. Soon enough to impact this summer? No idea...

State officials need to put up the "Closed" sign at the northern border. The huge influx of refugees fleeing high tax states has been very noticeable the past couple of years and its directly impacting coastal areas and water quality...

 

[Les_Lammers]

Red tide is naturally occurring and has been happening for as long as people have been recording history here in FL. We can do very little to prevent it completely. They're still trying to determine if there is anything we can do to mitigate or minimize it...

The blue/green algae blooms are a different animal. Hopefully with some new leadership in the state, we'll see steps towards curbing the underlying factors there. Soon enough to impact this summer? No idea...

State officials need to put up the "Closed" sign at the northern border. The huge influx of refugees fleeing high tax states has been very noticeable the past couple of years and its directly impacting coastal areas and water quality...

I believe agricultural fertilizer that ends up in Lake O has more of an impact on water quality than the increase in population.

 

[crboggs]

I believe agricultural fertilizer that ends up in Lake O has more of an impact on water quality than the increase in population.

Its a little more complex than just Lake O...

More people means more development which means more septic/sewer impacts along with more habitat destruction which removes natural filters like mangroves and marshes. And that doesn't even mention water usage in general by a larger population base.

You mention agricultural fertilizer but I would add residential fertilizers to that as well. Walk around Disney or any of the resort areas in Orlando and tell me how they keep everything so green and lush 24x7x365. Then consider all the population boom around Orlando and all the people paying True Green or whatever company to spray their lawns. All of that stuff flows south through that chain of rivers and lakes and finds its way to Lake O.

They hold water back in Lake O specifically to prevent flooding of the relatively recently settled areas south of there. That's the whole reason water is released east and west instead of being allowed to flow south where it can be naturally filtered and cleaned before ending up in the Everglades and Florida Bay.

I agree the agricultural areas around Lake O are a primary factor. But don't lose sight of the hugely dense population area around Orlando and its impacts to water quality south of there...

 

[sjrobin]

Three month precipitation forecast from NOAA. April, May, June, July above normal.

 

[sjrobin]

Three month precipitation forecast from NOAA. April, May, June, July above normal.

The wild card will be August tropical storms and hurricanes.

 

[Les_Lammers]

I agree the agricultural areas around Lake O are a primary factor. But don't lose sight of the hugely dense population area around Orlando and its impacts to water quality south of there.

I haven't dismissed Disney and golf courses. However, agriculture/muck farming appears to have been kept out of the press.

 

[7WT]

Pollution from all sources including but not limited to industrial (Florida is the 3rd largest phosphate industry in the WORLD),commercial, residential,agricultural (Sugar and more), rerouting of natural flow of Okeechobee, Climate change/Global warming (Temperature is one of the main environmental factors affecting physiological processes in phytoplankton, acting at many different stages of growth and bloom development.K. brevis can tolerate higher temperatures and grow faster given more carbon dioxide. Atmospheric carbon dioxide surpassed a concentration of 400 parts per million in 2015 and will continue to rise as society burns more fossil fuel.) Certainly population increase contributes in the above. Yes K. brevis occurs naturally but the blooms and the fertile environment for the expansion and long lasting time of the blooms is not. These are not "normal" blooms of the past. And they are not limited to Florida- similar terrible consequences in South America. This is us, Pogo is right.

 

[Boatbrains]

Ok, I’ll bite again.
We keep going back and fourth with ag run off and residential run off...
People gotta eat! The masses demand “cheap food” and as a hobby farmer I can tell you that nobody wants to pay for true, natural, organic, farm raised meat, eggs, dairy, or produce as it easily costs 3x the amount to produce. Without antibiotics, fertilizers, pesticides food would be almost untouchable for many folks. This wouldn’t be such a big deal if our population was what it was a century ago and people ate local products and grew their own.
How many of ya’ll are willing to pay $6lb for pork chops or $4.50-$5 for a dozen eggs, $4.50 lb for tomatoes because that is what it all costs for us small guys to produce quality, organic produce that doesn’t contain pesticides or hormones/antibiotics and to do it sustainably where we can make a little pocket change too. I am sure most farmers would stop using the crap if they could and still make a living but people are gonna have to pay for it by way of increased food prices.

Forgot to add this, the thing nobody needs that is a total waste of time, energy, and money... is a lush green lawn full of exotic and invasive grasses, flowers, and trees at the cost of total devistation to our environment! Sure, it looks pretty. Meanwhile our beautiful waters, marshes, forests are being destroyed by this very thing!

 

[crboggs]

Forgot to add this, the thing nobody needs that is a total waste of time, energy, and money... is a lush green lawn full of exotic and invasive grasses, flowers, and trees at the cost of total devistation to our environment! Sure, it looks pretty. Meanwhile our beautiful waters, marshes, forests are being destroyed by this very thing!

Yup. My neighborhood sits in the Double Branch Water Shed region in upper Tampa Bay.

The wife was complaining about dollar weed and clover in the yard last week. Quite frankly the whole thing is looking a little ratty right now. But I told her we're never paying a company to spray junk on the lawn twice a month.

 

[Boatbrains]

Yup. My neighborhood sits in the Double Branch Water Shed region in upper Tampa Bay.

The wife was complaining about dollar weed and clover in the yard last week. Quite frankly the whole thing is looking a little ratty right now. But I told her we're never paying a company to spray junk on the lawn twice a month.

Just an fyi, dollar weed = too much water